CREJ – Retail Properties Quarterly – May 2025
The national retail sector braces for the impacts of uncertainty, while Northern Colorado’s storefronts are proving they can weather the storm. Here’s why: While the word “uncertain” seems to be how US consumers are describing current economic conditions with talks of tariffs, inflation, and interest rates, these factors, albeit important, do not represent the whole picture of the highly segmented real estate market. Northern Colorado’s retail market is no exception to this segmentation.
Economic Indicators
The national retail sector has had increasing vacancy rates for the last year, while both Larimer and Weld Counties have seen vacancy rates decrease year-over-year. Of note, the Weld County vacancy rate was 3.7% in Q4 of 2022 and has compressed to 2.2% as of Q1 2025 with 482,104 square feet of net new deliveries occurring in that time, according to CoStar. While vacancy has decreased year-over-year from 2024 in Larimer County compressing to 4.5% by Q1 of 2025, the bigger picture of the market shows that vacancy rate has been trending higher since the end of 2017, according to CoStar. Overall, vacancies have steeply declined in Weld County over the last year and in Larimer County over the last six months.
The compressed regional vacancy is noteworthy, as rents in the region have continued to grow. Larimer’s rent growth is at about 2.4% and Weld is sitting a little over 2.1% with the national average of 2.0% at the end of Q1, according to CoStar. While rent growth has slowed both nationally and regionally, some may think it is a sign of the times forecasting a recession. However, the important fact is that rent growth is still positive and can be expected to rebound as consumers’ economic fears start to subside. Recent reports such as month-over-month retail sales showed better than expected data, the Fear and Greed Index has been rebounding, and unemployment claims have either been less than or on par with forecasts for about the last two months. Consumers are understandably skeptical but not overly fearful of economic conditions.
Developments
Major projects like Uptown and Ledge Rock are indicators of Northern Colorado’s growth as well. The population in Weld County has grown by over 30% since 2010, while the retail supply has lagged behind demand causing many of Greeley’s anchor tenants to perform above the 75th percentile in the state, according to AlphaMap data. For example, Greeley has some of the highest-performing King Soopers ranking in the 97th and 82nd percentiles in the state. That is not the only grocer anchor performing strong either. Walmart at 3103 South 23rd Avenue ranks 90th percentile in the state and 92nd percentile nationally. Also, there are two Greeley Safeway locations performing in the top quartile in the state. Greeley grocers perform well for a multitude of reasons; however, it makes a case for other anchor tenants to pay attention to the strength of retail demand in Weld County as a whole because Greeley’s growth is converging with and pushing into other Weld County municipalities, such as Firestone and Johnstown.
The growth is not just localized to Weld County either. Larimer County is expected to continue being among the fastest growing counties in Colorado as well. Major players are looking to get into the infill areas for this very reason, like the retail sites at Bloom, Bass Pro Shops coming to Loveland, and other big boxes looking at areas along the I-25 corridor such as Windsor Villages at Ptarmigan and The Ridge in Johnstown.
Where should you stake your claim?
The areas with the most promising demand and growth are Johnstown, west Greeley, and Firestone. These areas have big retail activity and upcoming developments following the flock of population which is building an attractive case for investors and businesses.
Given the statistics and abundance of population growth, investors and business owners alike are looking to get into the market but some are hesitant or fearful right now, and for good reasons. But Warren Buffet, widely regarded as the best investor of all time, once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” The case could not be stronger for that in Northern Colorado. The players targeting the region as aggressively as possible right now will likely be the ones who come out on top.
Source: CREJ – Retail Properties Quarterly – May 2025, “NoCo Retail Market Shows Economic Resilience”, pg. 11, Nick Thrun, Licensed Real Estate Assistant, NAI Affinity